Nov 22, 2008

boglehead MN meeting minutes - 23-nov-2008

attendees: 29
location: majors in bloomington
when: 23-nov-08
duration: 2.5 hours

agenda:
1) welcome & “formal” intro - your name & guess when we’ll hit market bottom
2) risk quiz
3) break into 5 tables, 4 sessions (all session will be 20 minutes each)
4) wrapup, next meeting timing / location / format, picture








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Feel free to share this with others. Because the survey I put together was based on questions from three different surveys, this survey has also never been tested for validity.

Risk Tolerance Survey Results
Bloomington Bogleheads 11-23-2008

Of the 22 individuals who took the survey, 11 had previously taken a risk assessment survey. As self reported, the risk tolerance of 8 of the 11 is lower than their previously reported risk tolerance. However, because the margin for error on the survey is plus or minus three points, no definitive conclusion can be reached regarding the effect of the current market environment on risk tolerance. The average for the entire group was at the high end of the moderate range (22.36 where the moderate range is 15-23). In comparing the retired group to those more than 10 years from retirement, the younger group scored only slightly higher within the moderate range (1.86 points, 23.86 to 22.00). The most significant difference within two groups was that those who had previously taken a risk assessment scored 2.91 points less than those who had never taken a risk assessment (23.82 to 20.91). Those who had previously taken an assessment were close to the middle
of the moderate range while those who had not, were borderline moderate-high.

Based on the nature of the self selected group, this was not a statistically valid sample that can be extrapolated to the population at large.
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1st session
A BOGLEHEAD Basics 101: What is one? Brief history of bogleheads
B EMH (efficient market hypothesis): Does EMH really work? Considering the pessimism we have seen in the market lately are we sure that EMH has correctly priced equities or are there 'irrational' actors at work?
C ETFs: When to use ETFs, why to use them, who the major providers are, etc.
D BOND funds & TIPS: How to evaluate the risks/returns among bond funds. What data beyond 1,3,5,10 year returns need to be evaluated?
E WHY O WHY!?! someone knowledgeable explain in 5 minutes the reason for this economic mess, the bailout, and possible future scenarios if we continue to bail out further

2nd session
A AA: reviewing actual asset allocations / portfolios from people (bring 8 copies, % only)
B REBALANCE: Rebalance in this market? How often? (from every 5 years to almost continually)
C ROTH conversions, benefits of Roth vs. Traditional. location of funds: I've been trying to find a rationale for placing funds in a Roth
D RISK TOLERANCE review your risk analysis results from the intro quiz that we all took
E EARLY RETIREMENT. have you retired early? or do you want to? strategies, case studies, bridge income, boglehead book chapter preview

3rd session
A BEAR MARKET: After the crash: If bailed, when to get back in. if AA too stock heavy, when to adjust. Maybe some people sold to raise cash or avoid losses or just sleep better. If so what would be good strategies to redeploy this money sometime in the future?
B MENTAL HEALTH: Reinforce my decision not to bail out of the market & move to some remote island. What has been your emotional experience. How cope? What advice? bear market strategies. Staying the course in turbulent markets. Tune out the noise and stay invested? Hardest part about current markets
C EMPLOYER retirement plans and fund options. choosing best of the bad. how to judge/pick
D ESTATE PLANNING: Wills, Trusts, Power of Attorney, Living Wills. how to set up? how to update? how much to pay? DIY?
E HSA: Health Savings Accounts. how to document. when to tap. records to keep, etc

4th session
A TLH: Tax loss harvesting: Selling/switching a mutual fund. When/how?: replacements "substantially identical"? Deciding, w/ losses or gains, Do people decide an exit strategy when they buy? selling: Strategies to minimize taxes when selling investments?
B AA: reviewing actual asset allocations / portfolios from people (bring 8 copies, % only)
C WASHINGTON DC: proposed legislation changes / bailouts (401k, tax rates) w/ new administration/congress, 2010 roth changes
D RETIREMENT INCOME: Managing income streams and minimizing taxes (how to balance and maximize after tax income from pensions, SS, annuities, and pre /post tax)
E MENTAL HEALTH: Reinforce my decision not to bail out of the market & move to some remote island. What has been your emotional experience. How cope? What advice? bear market strategies. Staying the course in turbulent markets. Tune out the noise and stay invested? Hardest part about current markets

Jul 26, 2008

26-jul-08 minutes of MN diehard / boglehead meeting

visit bogleheads.org for our global website. email directly at mndiehards@comcast.net if you want to be added to the mailing list for future meetings.

it was a full agenda... (maybe too full?) next meeting in early nov, some sat, 12:00, at bloomington major's.

attendees: 27. several new folks, several old.

highest boglehead quiz score = 16 (too many small/value tilters!).

yang and i discussed that we could convert this to a bubblehead group and try to figure out and profit from the next bubble... commodities, real estate, etc. but maybe not...
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the 'are you a diehard / boglehead' quiz:

ARE YOU A DIEHARD / BOGLEHEAD?

____ 1. In these trying times, do you think it's reasonable to make tactical allocation changes? (Y=0, N = 1)
____ 2. Is the best strategy to simply to hold a broadly diversified portfolio and stay the course? (Y=1, N =0)
____ 3. Critics argue that buy and holders are simply sticking their heads in the sand as risk rises in the marketplace. Do you agree? (Y=0, N=1)
____ 4. Do you manage risk by diversifying among different types of securities - including bonds - and then staying the course? (Y=1, N =0)
____ 5. Do you rebalance and make necessary adjustments based on our own personal situation; not on market forecasts? (Y=1, N =0)
____ 6. Do you overweight portfolio to take advantage of the so-called value and small-cap premiums? (Y=0, N=1)
____ 7. Do you hold a broad market index fund and stay the course? (Y=1, N =0)
____ 8. Do you actively trade ETFs? (Y=0, N=1)
____ 9. Do you invest in high-cost actively managed funds? (Y=0, N=1)
____ 10. Do you consider yourself a market timer? (Y=0, N=1)
____ 11. Do you save regularly? (Y=1, N =0)
____ 12. Do you avoid mistakes? (Y=1, N =0)
____ 13. Do you have an asset-allocation plan? (Y=1, N =0)
____ 14. Do you diversify with broad market index funds? (Y=1, N =0)
____ 15. Do you keep costs low (including taxes)? (Y=1, N =0)
____ 16. Do you strive for simplicity? (Y=1, N =0)
____ 17. Do you stay the course? (Y=1, N =0)
____ add up your total score here. check with descriptions below

SCORING:
17 = You ARE John Bogle!
13-16 = Give that man a Bogle Bobblehead! Charter member.
10-12 = Pretty Boglish! Stay the course!
6-9 = You've heard the word, but haven't quite walked the walk.
3-5 = Eek. Good luck with that!
0-2 = Unrepentant market timing stock trader!


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agenda: 1) welcome & “formal” intro - your name & what you’ve done during this bear market 2) boglehead quiz (below) 2) break into 5 tables, 5 sessions (all session will be ~15 minutes each) 3) wrapup, picture, next meeting timing / location / format

==================== Session 1 ==================== Table 1: Boglehead basics: what is one? Brief history of bogleheads Table 2: AA: Sample AAs for different ages/risk tolerance Automatic Investing 401k/403b/other, Setting Goals, Books/websites, how people track, Filing/keep/shred Table 3: AA: interested in asset allocation of index funds in retirement. Table 4: AA: reviewing actual portfolios from people (bring 8 copies, % only) Table 5: AA: US / Int'l equity allocations

==================== Session 2 ==================== Table 1: ROTH conversions, benefits of Roth vs. Traditional. location of funds: I've been trying to find a rationale for placing funds in a ROTH. Table 2: ROTH 401(k) vs. Traditional 401(k) if you have the option Table 3: 401k: keep $ in company stock, w/draw as LT gain, not ord. Income? Table 4: PICK: non-vanguard funds: discuss the where & why of owning such funds. Risk factor of being diversified through different fund families, e.g. Fidelity, VG, others Table 5: PICK: Picking/rating a mutual fund to meet AA, Rating – Morningstar, others

==================== Session 3 ==================== Table 1: PICK: Workplace retirement plans and fund options, etc. Table 2: TAX: tax deferred account %? Roll-over to Roth (qualifications today, 2010 law changes), Preparing for roll-over (accumulate cash), Does anyone have Roth 401k offered today? Table 3: TAX: taxes: strategies to minimize taxes, future tax changes and respective changes in investment strategies if any, pay off mortgage sooner vs. invest in taxable (if smth left after tax-deferred)... Table 4: TAX: Retirement: Managing income streams and minimizing taxes (how to balance and maximize after tax income from pensions, SS, annuities, and pre /post tax) Table 5: Selling/switching a mutual fund. When/how?: Deciding, w/ losses or gains, Do people decide an exit strategy when they buy? selling: I'm thinking real hard about selling out of a fund I've owned for a long time. does anybody have strategies to minimize taxes when selling investments?

==================== Session 4 ==================== Table 1: WD Buckets of Money Theory (withdraw phase) and other withdrawal techniques Table 2: WD RMD Required Min. Distribution which will happens at 70.5. I'd like to be better prepared for taxes both Fed and MN taxes, fund location advantages, re-balancing strategies, reverse mortgages, etc. Table 3: BONDS: junk bonds: What (if any) percent of total portfolio to devote to ‘junk bond’ funds, and if so what are well-run, inexpensive funds or ETFs to use? Table 4: BONDS: bond funds: How to evaluate the risks/returns among bond funds. What data beyond 1,3,5,10 year returns need to be evaluated? Table 5: ETFs: When to use ETFs, why to use them, who the major providers are, etc.

==================== Session 5 ==================== Table 1: bear market correction: staying the course in turbulent markets. What do you do to tune out the noise and stay invested? What is the hardest part about the current state of the markets, tuning out the media, etc.... Table 2: commodities: What % of portfolio are commodities, what are well-run, inexpensive funds or ETFs to use? What the heck are speculators doing to drive prices up. We all "speculate". What happens to market when they go away? Is the housing bust similar? outlaw speculation? We seem to be in series of bubbles Table 3: rebalance; How often? (from every 5 years to almost continually) Table 4: Estate planning: Wills, Trusts, Power of Attorney, Living Will Table 5: VG: Managers Who Eat Their Own Cooking OR NOT! It appears Vanguard managers who run index funds don't believe in indexing.






Mar 8, 2008

mtg minutes - 8-mar-2008 bloomington

wow, what a great meeting. lots of new faces, and a lots of vets, too. see below for agenda:

http://www.diehards.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11179&mrr=1205012670

meeting minutes (...seconds)
attendees: 36
length: 2.5 hrs
topics: see below
format: 3 groups and 2 breakout sessions. thanks to walleye, a2z and sue for moderating each table.
next meeting: july-ish
next location: woodbury-ish

click on each picture to make bigger, then hit "back":





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MN diehards/bogleheads meeting
“...dedicated to do-it-yourself, low cost, diversified, stay the course investing”
saturday, 8-mar-2008, 12:00
majors in bloomington

full group - “formal” intro - your name, forum name (if applicable), what you want to get out of today’s meeting

#1 breakout session
A) asset allocation reviews (%s only) bring 10 copies if you want to get peer reviewed
B) changes you’re hoping to make in 2008
C) steve showing his portfolio software

full group - want do you want to learn in next 12 months?

#2 breakout session
A) recent interesting diehard threads or polls
B) leading pres. candidates views and how those views may affect our portfolios/economy
C) financial metrics that you track for your household

full group - economy in 2008. predictions on US & intl equity & bond returns

full group - wrapup, next meeting timing / location / format

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other group discussion ideas (for third breakout, or as time allows)
- estate planning: wills, trusts, how set up? cost?
- tax mgmt for retirement accounts (401ks, roth IRAs, SEPs) vs. taxable accounts
- diversifying retirement accounts (roth? 401k? after-tax? 529s?)
- one concrete way diehards/bogleheads/vanguard have helped you out
- favorite / funny stories about investing
- your worst investing mistake
- ETFs. who is using them? why? how to select them?
notes:

what diehards believe:
1. keep it simple
2. create a diversified, passive asset allocation and rebalance to it annually
3. stay the course - ignore the noise – do not market time or performance chase
4. costs matter - invest through low cost companies/ETFs
5. buy and hold low expense, low turnover, passive funds/ETFs
6. core holdings should be TSM, TISM, TBM, MM
7. no individual stocks - high uncompensated risk
8. bonds = age - 15 as a starting point
9. defer and/or manage taxes
10. buy term life insurance and invest the rest
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